2010 Job Market Outlook: Cloudy

By Margaret Steen
Yahoo! HotJobs
December 3, 2009

The recession may be over, but the job market recovery is lagging way behind. And experts say the situation may get worse before it gets better.

“In the aftermath of recessions, there´s always a period of jobless recovery,” says John Challenger, CEO of global outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. “We´re certainly not optimistic about seeing much improvement in the unemployment rate in 2010.”

Moody´s Economy.com forecasts that payroll employment will continue to decline until the middle of 2010, says Sophia Koropeckyj, managing director of Moody´s Economy.com. Then it will start slowly improving, ending the year “slightly higher than where we are now.” Unemployment is expected to continue rising, topping out at 10.7 percent in the third quarter of next year.

Some industries will likely pick up faster than others. Koropeckyj says industries such as construction and manufacturing will probably begin to hire sooner. Retail, tourism, and hospitality, which depend entirely on consumer spending, will probably be among the last to recover.

It´s important to remember that even when the overall number of jobs goes down, some companies are still adding workers — it´s just that others are cutting even more.

“There are always jobs,” Challenger says. “Companies are always hiring. But the competition is much tougher.”

Experts offer advice for surviving — and thriving — in the next year:

If You´re Still Employed:

This might not be a good time to move to a new job. If your job seems unstable or you´re offered your dream job, it may be worth it. But if you go to a new company and the company realizes it was overly optimistic about hiring, you could be let go — into the worst job market in decades.

It may be better to make the most of this next year where you are. “Figure out how to do a better job,” says Valerie Frederickson, founder and CEO of Menlo Park, California–based Valerie Frederickson & Co., a human resource executive search and consulting firm. Can you get assigned to a team working on a hot new project, or volunteer for a task that will give you new, marketable skills? “What´s going to be the next wave?”

If You´re Unemployed:

If you have been out of work for a long time, it may be time to consider taking a job you wouldn´t have looked at before.

This will bring in some money and help you make connections, Frederickson says. It can also help you polish skills that you can lose while out of work: “being fast, multitasking, answering questions quickly and succinctly.”

There are two concerns about taking a so–called survival job. It could distract you from your job search, and potential employers may have trouble envisioning you in your previous professional role.

These concerns are real, but there are ways around them. For example, you can use your survival job to show employers that you´re willing to work hard. And you can continue your job search after work.

“The longer people sit out of the job market, the harder it´s going to be for them to re–enter,” Frederickson says.

Just because the job market is tough doesn´t mean it´s impossible. “You have to work harder at the job search,” Challenger said.


Margaret Steen is a freelance writer, editor and writing instructor with over a decade of experience writing for daily newspapers, magazines, and Websites. Based out of the San Francisco Bay Area, Margaret has worked as a copy editor, a magazine section editor, and a freelance editor of white papers and reports. In addition to writing and editing, Margaret teaches writing skills in staff development workshops and adult education classes.